Moldovans to decide whether they want the European Union

By: Marian Männi, Moldova, for ESTDEVA

I recently hailed a taxi in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova. The driver was polite and spoke beautiful Romanian, suggesting he was a local. "Are you going to the referendum on Sunday?" I asked Sergiu enthusiastically. He seemed unsure.

Moldova is set to hold a crucial referendum on Sunday, giving residents of this EU candidate nation the chance to shape their future. The results will be enshrined in the constitution, making any changes challenging in the future. Pro-European President Maia Sandu has warned that this will be the only referendum on the matter, emphasizing its significance as one of the most pivotal since Moldova's declaration of independence in 1991. On the same day, Moldovans will also elect a president.

I moved to Moldova seven years ago. Late-night conversations with Moldovans often led to their identity. Some passionately asserted that Moldovans are Romanians and should reunite with their motherland. There were those who still live in the Russian cultural sphere and those who dream of a Western Moldova. Then there are those like Sergiu, my taxi driver on that chilly autumn evening, who simply wish for Moldova to be free and not belong to anywhere. "Please go to the referendum. The future of Moldova is at stake!" I urged him.

Which way will Moldova go? 

The air in Chisinau is so thick with tension that you could cut it with a knife. Russian propaganda has been warning for months that moving toward the EU means choosing war. The logic behind this is hard to explain, but the idea has gained traction.

Politicians and volunteers from both sides go door to door, handing out promises on posters and sticking them to the walls. President Sandu says she'll bring peace, freedom and democracy. Her main rival, the pro-Russian Socialist candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, promises justice, with his primary concern being mass emigration. Stoianoglo fears that joining the European Union will lead to a massive wave of people leaving Moldova; about a million have already left.

Since Moldova was part of Romania before the Soviet occupation, Moldovans can apply for a Romanian passport. More than a third of the population has pursued this route, making Moldova the only EU candidate country where a significant portion of citizens already hold EU passports. In a striking detail reported by local media last week, even pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo has obtained an EU passport.

The upcoming referendum will settle a critical question for Moldova once and for all - will the country move Westward or not? This decision carries immense weight, especially as Moldova grapples with a series of crises, including rampant corruption, oligarchy, the largest bank fraud in history, money laundering, ongoing conflicts, pervasive Russian propaganda, and the highest inflation rate in Europe

Over the past decade, Moldovans have endured significant hardships so that I often wonder how they hold up. Last winter, I visited rural villages to gather survival tips from the elderly. They welcomed me with delicious pancakes and proudly showed their cellars, stocked with jars of homemade jam and pickled vegetables. Many families keep chickens, and the village store typically only sells essentials like sugar and salt. In the absence of firewood, locals often use bricks made from cow dung and grain—known as 'tizic'—to heat their homes.

The war unexpectedly opened the door to the EU

Despite confusion among the populace, the Moldovan government has made steady progress towards EU integration over the past three years - an opportunity that arose almost by chance. Just months after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU welcomed Moldova as a candidate state. Negotiations began at the end of last year, allowing Moldova to advance rapidly in its EU aspirations. In stark contrast, Turkey has been an EU candidate for nearly 25 years without similar progress.

“Moldova has made good use of the window of opportunity, presented by Ukraine,” said Klen Jäärats, Executive Director of the Estonian Centre for International Development (ESTDEV). However, Kremlin officials are actively working against this momentum. 

They are counting on the fact that the referendum will be canceled if one-third of eligible citizens do not vote. According to the Moldovan police, Russia has invested over 150 million euros in Moldova, aiming to influence the referendum outcome or sway voters toward a more pro-Russian stance. A robust anti-European Union network has emerged, reportedly involving around 130,000 individuals. These "activists" receive monthly salaries starting at 50 euros for participating in protests and ensuring favorable votes. They also run call centers to talk and convince fellow Moldovans to support their cause. 

Western partners support Moldova

Amid disinformation campaigns and vote-buying schemes, many Western allies, including Estonia, are ready to step in and support the Moldovan government. The Estonian Centre for International Development (ESTDEV) is actively preparing Moldovan civil servants for EU accession negotiations, among various other initiatives. Institutions such as the Estonian School of Diplomacy and the University of Tartu are involved, along with Estonian diplomats and experts who previously participated in EU negotiations on Estonia's behalf.

"We are training 100 Moldovan officials from various ministries to contribute to the European Union negotiations," said Ekke Nõmm, director of the Estonian School of Diplomacy. "It's a complex, long-term, technical process." He noted that while there is a strong political will, the Moldovan administration remains "weak, fragile, and faces challenges with the English language."

Nõmm is optimistic, drawing parallels with Estonia's own EU journey and similar administrative challenges. "Just as the Finns and Swedes helped Estonia, now it is Estonia's turn to assist Moldova," he emphasised. “We urge Moldovans to seek help without hesitation. There is currently a strong political will. The focus now should be on increasing salaries and training civil servants.” 

The European Union has pledged one billion euros to Moldova, contingent upon contingent upon a positive outcome from the referendum.   Klen Jäärats warns that “the historical window that has opened can close just as quickly.” Jäärats believes European integration would certainly help Moldova by attracting foreign investments and providing economic stability. However, the desire to join EU must ultimately come from the Moldovans themselves.